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Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe)

Opportunités et Risques pour les Agro-ecosystèmes et les forêts en réponse aux changements CLimatiquE, socio-économiques et politiques en France (et en Europe)

Ce projet est financé par l'Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR), et est référencé sous le numéro suivant: ANR-10-CEPL-011

Click here to download the whole project / Cliquez ci-dessous pour voir l'intégralité du projet:

ORACLE_ProjetComplet (English version)

Project coordinated by / Projet coordonné par :

Nathalie de Noblet


                If you wish to contact all participants to the project, one single email: oracle@lsce.ipsl.fr
                Pour nous contacter TOUS, envoyez un email à l'adresse suivante:  oracle@lsce.ipsl.fr

Project's Summary :

ORACLE aims at providing spatially-gridded assessments of potential future changes in a) the functioning of agro-ecosystems, b) land uses in France at rather high resolution (8 x 8 km2) and in Europe at medium resolution (50 x 50 km2). These assessments involve the production of tools and data to study the relationships between climate change and possible changes in land use, together with the impacts of changing policies. We will focus our analysis and modeling on the main components of the non-urban land use, namely crops, grasslands and forests. We will study their production as well as their environmental functionalities (GHG emission, hydrology, soil carbon storage) and develop a small set of relevant indicators. Climate-induced changes in those indicators will be analyzed and, wherever possible, their upper and lower limits will be defined. This will allow us to assess, per grid-cell, risks of dis-functioning of specific systems, potential disappearance of present-day land-uses, and potentialities of appearance of new ones. We will also try to combine the indicators with water availability to identify potential future hot-spots in France and Europe, i.e., grid-cells or regions that may experience drastic land-use changes. Insights on land-use change will be obtained following two parallel methodologies. First, we will use the climatically-induced variations of the above-mentioned indicators to explore reshaping of farming systems, optimizing opportunities and minimizing constraints, without accounting for changes in socio-economic drivers. The propositions will rely on a) meta-analysis of published data on agronomic performances and environmental impacts of cultivation systems, and b) expert knowledge. In the second methodology, we will jointly evaluate the impacts of changes in climatic and socio-economic drivers on anthropogenic land-uses. We will rank those impacts and identify areas where the impacts of climate change on land-uses may overrule those resulting from socio-economic changes. We will also attempt to estimate land-use change between agriculture and forest when both climatic and economic drivers change. Results will be obtained i) at three spatial scales, namely Europe, France and hydrological basin (Seine and Rhine basins), ii) for two time horizons (2020-2050 and 2070-2100) in reference to the 1970-2000 period. Both prospective uncertainty (socio-economic scenarios, crop or forest management) and epistemic uncertainty (due to imperfect knowledge within models) will be analyzed at various levels through multi-model and multi-scenario approaches and appropriate statistical analysis. Results of the uncertainty analysis will be used as an input for modeling anticipative adaptation decisions in the economic models. In terms of methodology, the main idea of the project is to rely on well-known models (global vegetation models, agronomic and forest models, economic models) and on published experimental data, and profit from existing methods (climate downscaling, meta-analysis, indicator reckoning…) and databases developed within the framework of previous projects on climate change impacts, in an integrated and coordinated way. ORACLE is a true multi-disciplinary project that brings together climatologists, crop and forest scientists, economists, hydrologists and statisticians who have an experience in climate change issues at various scales. Many of the partners involved have already worked together on shared scientific objectives (national and European programs), and this makes us confident that our collaboration in ORACLE will be efficient. It is expected to deliver valuable information to the 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WG II & III).

Project's Arborescence :

Models and functions

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Description of project phases

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  1. Achat, D., Augusto, L., Gallet-Budynek, A., Loustau, D. (2016). Future challenges in coupled C–N–P cycle models for terrestrial ecosystems under global change: a review. Biogeochemistry, 131 (1-2), 173-202. DOI : 10.1007/s10533-016-0274-9
  2. Albaugh, T. J., Albaugh, J. M., Fox, T. R., Allen, H. L., Rubilar, R. A., Trichet, P., Loustau, D., Linder, S. (2016). Tamm Review: Light use efficiency and carbon storage in nutrient and water experiments on major forest plantation species. Forest Ecology and Management, 376, 333-342. DOI : 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.031 http://prodinra.inra.fr/record/358897
  3. Bontemps JD, Bouriaud O. 2013. Predictive approaches to forest site productivity : recent trends, challenges, and future perspectives. Review paper, Forestry.
  4. Calvet, J.-C., Lafont, S., Cloppet, E., Souverain, F., Badeau, V., & Le Bas, C. (2012). Use of agricultural statistics to verify the interannual variability in land surface models: a case study over France with ISBA-A-gs. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(1), 37–54. http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-37-2012
  5. Caubel, J., García de Cortázar-Atauri, I., Launay, M., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Huard, F., Bertuzzi, P., & Graux, A.-I. (2015). Broadening the scope for ecoclimatic indicators to assess crop climate suitability according to ecophysiological, technical and quality criteria. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 207, 94–106. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.02.005
  6. Caubel, J., Cortazar-atauri, I. G. De, Vivant, A. C., Launay, M., & Noblet-ducoudré, N. De. (2017). Assessing future meteorological stresses for grain maize in France. Agricultural Systems. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.010
  7. Chakir, R., & Lungarska, A. (2016). Agricultural land rents in land use models: a spatial econometric analysis. Spatial Economic Analysis, (online first), 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2017.1273542
  8. Habets F., P. Viennot, P. Verjus (2014). Changement climatique sur le bassin de la Seine: de la quantification des impacts vers l’adaptation. Revue Géologues, 183, p 94-99
  9. Laanaia, N., Carrer, D., Calvet, J., & Pagé, C. (2016). Climate Risk Management How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France ? A generic modeling approach. Climate Risk Management, 13, 31–42. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.06.001
  10. Leclère, D., Jayet, P. A., & de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (2013). Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change. Ecological Economics, 87, 1–14.
  11. Lefèvre, F., Loustau, D., Marcais, B. (2015). Vers une gestion adaptative des forêts. Pour la Science, 18-21. http://prodinra.inra.fr/record/340207
  12. Lobianco, A., Delacote, P., Caurla, S., & Barkaoui, A. (2015). The importance of introducing spatial heterogeneity in bio-economic forest models : Insights gleaned from FFSM ++. Ecological Modelling, 309–310, 82–92. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.012
  13. Lobianco, A., S. Caurla, P. Delacote, A. Barkaoui (2016a), “Carbon mitigation potential of the French forest sector under threat of combined physical and market impacts due to climate change.”, Journal of Forest Economics, Volume 23, April 2016, Pages 4–26
  14. Lobianco, A., P. Delacote, S. Caurla, A. Barkaoui (2016b), “Accounting for active management and risk attitude in forest sector models. An impact study on French forests”, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, June 2016, Volume 21, Issue 3, Pages 391–405
  15. Lungarska, A., & Jayet, P.-A. (2016). Impact of Spatial Differentiation of Nitrogen Taxes on French Farms’ Compliance Costs. Environmental and Resource Economics, (online first), (1-21). http://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-016-0064-9
  16. Philibert, A., Loyce, C., & Makowski, D. (2012). Quantifying Uncertainties in N 2 O Emission Due to N Fertilizer Application in Cultivated Areas, 7(11). http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050950
  17. Wernsdörfer H, Colin A, Bontemps JD, CHevalier H, Pignard G, Caurla S, Leban JM, Hervé JC, Fournier M. Large-scale dynamics of a heterogeneous forest resource are driven jointly by geographically varying growth conditions, tree species composition and stand structure. Annals of Forest Science 69 (7), 829-844
  18. Wilcox, J., & Makowski, D. (2014). Field Crops Research A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies. Field Crops Research, 156, 180–190. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2013.11.008


  1. Lungarska, A, & Chakir, R. (soumis à Ecological Economics ;mono partenaire). Climate induced land use change in France : impacts of agricultural adaptation and climate change mitigation.


Ce sont les Rapports qui ne donneront pas lieu à des publications.

Sophie Wieruszeski & Nathalie de Noblet (LSCE): “Ajustement de la phénologie d’ORCHIDEE par rapport à STICSoracle_rapport-orchidee_janv2014.pdf

Pierre Mérian et Jean-Daniel Bontemps (LERFoB): “Modèles d’impact climatique pour la productivité et la probabilité de présence d’espèces ligneuses principales de la forêt françaiseoracle_rapportforets-lerfob_oct2016.pdf

Anne-Isabelle Graux (UREP): “Indicateurs proposés pour l’évaluation des impacts du changement climatiqueoracle_indicateurs_climatiques_oct2011.pdf

Anne-Charlotte Vivant (LSCE): “Validité de l’utilisation des données SAFRANoracle_validitedonneessafran_janv2016.pdf

Rapport Final du projet ORACLE

Rapport soumis à l'ANR le 31 Mars 2017: oracle_compte-rendu-final_mars2017_vfinale-31mars2017.docx

Work Package 1



Work Package 2


Figure TASK-2:

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Coordinators: Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri Garcia (igarcia@avignon.inra.fr), Gianni Bellocchi (gianni.bellocchi@clermont.inra.fr)



Task-2 Meetings

Work Package 3


Figure TASK-3:

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Coordinator: Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré (nathalie.de-noblet@lsce.ipsl.fr)


Task-3 Meetings

Task-3 Simulations Protocole

Work Package 4


Figure TASK-4:

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Coordinator: Pierre-Alain Jayet (jayet@grignon.inra.fr)


Task-4 Meetings

→ Task 4.2 : LERFoB contribution / roadmap (English version) : oracle_task-4_valentinbellassen_31janv2012.ppt

General Meetings



Scientists Recruited


INTRANET - Data and Bibliography


home.txt · Dernière modification: 2017/03/31 15:04 par noblet